Canada Election Odds & Election Day Betting Lines: Carney's Liberals Heavy Favorites
It's election day in Canada, and Mark Carney's Liberals are still the heavy and consensus betting favorites by the latest Canada election odds with what's expected to be a record voter turnout based on the advanced polls.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives once held a significant lead by the Canada election betting odds but that dwindled upon Donald Trump's re-election in the United States and disappeared once the Liberals replaced Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney.
The Liberals are -405 betting favorites on election day, according to the odds from our Canada election betting sites. Voting hours end between 7 and 9:30 p.m. ET depending on your region.
🇨🇦 Updated Canada election betting odds
Here are the latest Canada election odds from FanDuel Ontario as of election day:
| Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liberal | -405 |
| Conservative | +270 |
| Any other party | +7500 |
The Liberal Party's -405 odds represent an implied win probability of 80.20% and would return a profit of $2.47 on a winning $10 if they're announced as the next government of Canada tonight or in the ensuing days.
The Conservatives are now +270 underdogs, with a winning $10 bet returning a profit of $27 at an implied win probability of 27.03%.
🪑 How many seats are needed to win the election?
There are 343 seats in the House of Commons and 172 seats are needed to form a majority government. The Liberals hold a minority government from the 2021 election.
The latest polls from CBC show the Liberals with 42.8% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives' 39.2% share. The NDP Party is a distant third at 8.1%, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 6%.
However, Carney and the Liberals are projected to win 189 seats and have a 70% chance of forming a majority government.
🤖 AI prediction for who will win the Canada election
I asked ChatGPT, a large language model chatbot from OpenAI, to predict the winner of the Canada election. Note, ChatGPT is not a sports bettor, but can provide information that can be used to inform decisions. This is for entertainment purposes only:
Based on the latest polling data and election forecasts, the Liberal Party, under the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to win the 2025 Canadian federal election. Final projections suggest the Liberals could secure between 162 and 204 seats, potentially achieving a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
This anticipated victory marks a significant turnaround for the Liberals, who were trailing the Conservatives by 20 points earlier in the year. The shift in public opinion has been largely attributed to Carney's strong leadership credentials and his firm stance against U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and rhetoric, including threats of tariffs and suggestions of annexing Canada.
The election has been heavily influenced by concerns over national sovereignty and economic independence, with many Canadians rallying behind Carney's commitment to defending the country's interests. In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's perceived alignment with Trumpian populism has not resonated as strongly with voters.
While the official results will be confirmed after polls close nationwide, current indicators point toward a Liberal victory, reflecting a collective desire among Canadians for stable and assertive leadership in the face of external pressures.
📈 Canada election odds movement
The betting odds for the 2025 Canadian federal election have experienced significant shifts over the past few months, reflecting the evolving political landscape and public sentiment.
📉 Early 2025: Conservative dominance
At the beginning of 2025, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was the clear favorite among bettors. Odds heavily favored the Conservatives, with some sportsbooks listing them at -1500 (implying a 93.8% chance of winning), while the Liberals were significant underdogs at +800 (11.1% implied probability).
🔄 Mid-March: A tightening race
The political dynamics began to shift in March. Mark Carney's ascent to Liberal leadership and his strong stance against U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies resonated with voters. This led to a surge in support for the Liberals, and betting odds adjusted accordingly. By mid-March, the Liberals had become slight favorites at -130, while the Conservatives' odds lengthened to -110, indicating a near toss-up in the race.
📈 Late April: Liberal momentum
As the election approached, the Liberals continued to gain momentum. Carney's leadership and his emphasis on protecting Canadian sovereignty in the face of U.S. pressures further bolstered public support. By late April, the Liberals were leading in opinion polls with 43% support compared to the Conservatives' 39% . This shift was reflected in the betting markets, with the Liberals' odds improving and the Conservatives' odds lengthening, signaling increased confidence in a Liberal victory.
🧭 Conclusion
The betting odds for the 2025 Canadian federal election have mirrored the dynamic political environment. From early Conservative dominance to a competitive race and eventual Liberal favoritism, the odds have tracked the changing tides of public opinion and political developments. As Canadians head to the polls, the final outcome remains to be seen, but the betting markets have clearly responded to the evolving narrative.
📊 Polling and voter turnout
Recent polls indicate a resurgence in support for the Liberal Party, with a YouGov model projecting a potential majority government for the Liberals. Advance voting has seen a record turnout, with 7.3 million Canadians casting their ballots early.
🗳️ Election overview
- Date: April 28
- Seats Contested: 343 seats in the House of Commons
- Majority threshold: 172 seats
- Major parties:
- Liberal Party: Led by Mark Carney
- Conservative Party: Led by Pierre Poilievre
- New Democratic Party (NDP): Led by Jagmeet Singh
- Bloc Québécois: Led by Yves-François Blanchet
- Green Party: Co-led by Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault
- People's Party: Led by Maxime Bernier
🌎 Where can I bet on the Canadian election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our best Canada election betting sites. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
American residents can visit Kalshi - a prediction market that's legal and regulated in most states. New users can use Kalshi promo code 'SBR' to claim a $10 sign-up bonus. Kalshi gives Mark Carney and the Liberals an 81% chance of winning the federal election.
❓Canadian election FAQs
Who is the favorite to win the Canada election?
The Liberal Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -405 representing an 80.20% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian election?
The Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian election?
The next Canadian federal election is set for Monday, April 28.
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